2024 Preview: Elections, War, and Technology

 

The new year beckons, and with it, the yearly urge by international policy analysts to identify what could be the defining events of 2024. This year promises to be rich in major events, both for Europe and the world. Here are some key themes to watch:

1. Election year: There will be elections in key countries, including India, Taiwan, Russia, the EU (not a country, but the European Parliament still represents 450 million people) and the United States. Of these, the US Presidential elections in November will be the most closely watched, given that Donald Trump is once again a front runner and is promising revenge if elected.

2. The Rise of the Right in Europe: Europe will face its own internal struggles in the form of the European Parliament elections. The recent rise of right-wing and extremist parties poses a serious threat to the current consensus in Brussels, should they gain a sizable parliamentary representation. This could lead to a shift in EU policies and governance, with implications for the continent's unity and stability.

3. The Shadow of War in Ukraine: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to cast a long shadow over Europe and the world. Russia's aggression is not only bringing death and destruction to Ukraine, but it destabilizes the region and brings the threat of invasion to the EU’s doorstep. Finding a sustainable solution to this conflict will be a major challenge in the coming year, especially in light of recent US internal debates over its support for Ukraine.

4. From Ukraine to Gaza and Beyond: The world, unfortunately, is not lacking in conflict zones. The Gaza hostilities show no signs of abating, raising concerns about humanitarian crises and further regional instability. 

5. China's Economic Crossroads: The world's second-largest economy faces its own set of challenges. Economic stagnation and the risk of trade wars with the US and Europe could have ripple effects across the globe. Finding a stable path for China's economic growth will be crucial for global economic stability.

6. The Year when Electric Vehicles Take Center Stage? 2024 could be the year when electric cars finally break through into the mainstream. With Tesla leading the charge, other companies are poised to follow suit, transforming the automotive landscape and potentially reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

How times change - The Left’s change of attitude towards NATO

  The Year was 1983 The town was Sigonella, Sicily, Italy. Protests erupted against the deployment of cruise missiles in NATO bases across Europe. I vividly remember the demonstrations, even participating in some. The prevailing sentiment was a fear of being dragged into a conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union. A Different Worldview The United States represented capitalism, while the Soviet Union embodied communism. For many Europeans, the choice between these systems wasn't clear-cut. Germany passed legislation effectively banning the Communist Party. In Italy, a strong anticommunist elite took various legal and less-than-legal steps to prevent the Communist Party ever entering government. Other European countries experienced similar trends. As a result, for millions of Europe, NATO was thus seen as an instrument of oppression, of stifling democratic processes. In this climate, a significant portion of Europe's left-wing held a favorable or neutral view of th
Read more

Considerations on Russia, Ukraine and Certain Left-Wing Thinking

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a watershed moment in European history. It is a clear attempt to rebuild walls and iron curtains across Europe, reversing the momentous changes that took place in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed. That was an epoch-changing event, which ended a 40-year long Cold War between a democratic and capitalist West (Western Europe plus the USA, Canada and Japan) and a Communist world which included dozens of countries on several continents, under the ideological and military leadership of the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union collapsed, communist parties all over the world were left in a state of crisis. Communist regimes collapsed, and in democratic countries, Communist parties had to adapt to the new reality, most of the time disbanding, joining other political movements, or mutating into broader-based progressive political formations. The few that survived have mostly stayed as small, marginal movements largely isolated from the mainstream left. More bro
Read more

Gaza Caught in the Crossfire: Why Current Ceasefire Demands Miss the Mark

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has rightly sparked global concern and emotional pleas for a ceasefire. The images of suffering Palestinian civilians are harrowing. However, calls for Israel to unilaterally lay down arms while ignoring Hamas's role in the crisis risk neglecting a crucial aspect of the conflict: the asymmetrical nature of the threats faced by both sides. On October 7th, Israel faced an unprecedented onslaught. Hamas, operating from a sophisticated network of tunnels beneath Gaza, killed, tortured and kidnapped over a thousand Israeli civilians and unleashed a barrage of rockets targeting civilian populations throughout Israel. This intricate underground system serves as both a weapons cache and a military base, establishing Hamas as an armed force operating from the heart of a densely populated city. It is hard to demand that Israel should allow an army to place its barracks under a populated city, from which it can repeat such attacks.  Demand
Read more