What Happened in the 2024 U.S. Election: Some Lessons
The 2024 U.S. election delivered a decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party, giving them control over the presidency, Congress, and the Senate. In retrospect, the reasons for this outcome seem clear. While the Democratic Party may feel dismayed, these results offer valuable lessons for future campaigns. Below, I explore the three major factors which I see as contributing to the Democrats' defeat and the Republicans’ success, and attempt to derive some lessons from the election results.
1. The Economy: A Disconnect Between Data and Perception
Economic performance is often the cornerstone of electoral success, and in 2024, the perception of the U.S. economy overshadowed actual metrics. While economic indicators pointed to a thriving economy, public sentiment told a different story. As pointed out by Tim Hartford in the Financial Times (paywall), while headline data might suggest optimism, the positive results might not always be reflected in the daily lives of working people.
Many voters felt that prices were rising, even if inflation had cooled by election time. While unemployment was at an all time low, that was not the case for people between 25 and 49. The sense of economic strain, whether rooted in reality or perception, became a key vulnerability for Democrats.
2. Curb the Wokeness: Alienating the Broader Public
A significant cultural disconnect appears to have emerged between the Democratic Party's increasingly "woke" agenda and the broader electorate. While social progress is an essential aspect of governance, pushing too far beyond mainstream acceptance can alienate large swathes of voters.
The party’s commitment to causes like gender theory, which has led to diatribes about public bathrooms, sex changes among teenagers and competitive sports, became a lightning rod. For many Americans—particularly white women who mostly voted Republican—these issues felt invasive and dismissive of their concerns. They contributed to creating an image of the Democrats as being willing to sacrifice the wellbeing of millions of children and women for the sake of a very small minority of the population - irrespective of whether that was actually true or not.
Democracy thrives when the majority determines a nation’s course, while respecting minority rights. However, when policies aimed at benefiting a small subset of the population are perceived to disadvantage the majority, backlash becomes inevitable.
3. Immigration: Failing to Address Public Concerns
Immigration was another decisive issue. Despite public anxiety over a perceived immigration crisis, Democrats failed to communicate a clear plan or demonstrate decisive action. This silence was baffling. Even if the extent of the crisis is debatable, voters needed reassurance that the government was listening to their concerns and addressing them. Acknowledging voters’ concerns doesn’t mean capitulating to fear but rather demonstrating empathy and action. Republicans, by contrast, capitalised on the opportunity to appear tough on immigration, a stance that resonated with a public looking for leadership on the issue.
Lessons for the Democratic Party
The 2024 election underscores the importance of listening to the public, even when their concerns seem misaligned with party ideals. Three key lessons emerge:
Economy First: Policies must address not just economic realities but also public perception. People vote based on their lived experiences.
Cultural Pragmatism: Progress should unite, not divide. Extreme wokeness alienates voters and erodes support. Democrats should strike a better balance between progressive ideals and practical governance that resonates with mainstream voters.
Tangible Action: Address perceived crises head-on, whether through substantive policy or better communication.
Ultimately, Donald Trump and the Republicans succeeded because they articulated real concerns that resonated with voters. Democrats, by contrast, appeared preoccupied with abstract ideals and moral superiority. Instead of dismissing opponents as ignorant or uncouth, Democrats must approach future elections with more humility, empathy, and being better at listening to what voters care about most. In particular, the Democrats need to update their vision for where the country should be going. They should move beyond identity politics and embrace a more inclusive approach.
Lessons for the Republicans
While the Republican Party’s 2024 victory was decisive, there are lessons for them as well. Their success has partly depended on riding a wave of populist-style discontent, amplified by Donald Trump’s unique ability to galvanise his base. However, Trump is a political anomaly—a "flash in the pan" unlikely to be replicated. Four years from now, filling his shoes will be a significant challenge for the GOP. Furthermore, Trump’s ability to deliver on his sweeping promises, such as stopping immigration and revitalising the economy, remains an open question. The Republican Party must start planning for a post-Trump future, focusing on sustainable policies and leadership that can maintain their coalition without relying solely on his brand of charisma and populism. If they fail to do so, today’s victory may turn into tomorrow’s vulnerability.
Lessons for Donald Trump
Donald Trump might not see the need to learn lessons from this election. As the winner, he will likely interpret his victory as vindication of his approach and a resounding endorsement of his proposed policies by the electorate. However, if Trump were inclined to critically analyse the election results, he might recognise that his success reflects not just approval of his leadership but also a desire by the public for normality and stability. Like in most elections, voters ultimately seek common sense and a steady hand rather than radical upheaval.
Whether Trump can inject some critical introspection into his governing style remains to be seen. His often flamboyant and shocking approach to leadership is unlikely to change much from his first term, but there is some hope that he might use his outsized persona to achieve results that are more pragmatic and less extreme. Trump has been given a mandate, but the challenge for him now is to use it responsibly.
Lessons for Everyone: Building a Cohesive and Forward-Looking America
Beyond partisan politics, there are lessons here for all present and future leaders in America. At the heart of the nation’s challenges lies a deeply divided society, often fractured by identity politics and misunderstandings between social groups. This division has been exacerbated by growing levels of financial inequality. These trends pose a genuine threat to the country’s social cohesion, creating resentment and eroding trust in institutions. Tackling these divisions and addressing the root causes of inequality should be at the forefront of any political agenda moving forward.
On the international stage, America faces mounting challenges as it navigates a complex geopolitical landscape. As the world’s richest nation, its most dynamic economy, and the preeminent military power, the United States remains indispensable. Yet there is a growing perception among rival powers—some friendly, others less so—that America is on a downward spiral, creating a vacuum in global leadership. This perception, though incorrect in my view, is dangerous, as it can influence international behaviour and risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
America’s response to these challenges should be to reassert its global influence while preserving alliances and fostering cooperation in an increasingly multipolar world. Donald Trump, beyond the rhetoric of his “America First” slogan, could provide some succour. Contrary to the general narrative, Trump’s first term in office produced some positive results. He oversaw a reinforcement of NATO through increased financial commitment by all its members, made progress towards normalising relations between Israel and Arab countries, and started a policy of tougher relations with China and other potential economic rivals. The hope is that he will be able to restrain his worst instincts in areas such as tariffs, and instead pursue the more constructive aspects of his foreign policy record.
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