Politics in Europe: Is the Traditional Left-Right Divide Crumbling?
For decades, European politics has been defined by a familiar tug-of-war: the left versus the right. Socialist and progressive parties squared off against conservative and centrist forces, with the occasional liberal party (in the European sense) spicing things up. This comfortable dichotomy, a bedrock of the political landscape, is now facing an unprecedented challenge: the rise of insurrectionist, populist parties that are shaking the foundations of European democracy.
The Old Model: A Tale of Two Sides (and Some Variations)
Think back to the classic political battles across the continent. In many European nations, a dominant socialist or progressive party would typically face off against a major conservative party. Sometimes, this played out with multiple left-leaning parties against a constellation of centrist and conservative forces, but the basic framework remained. You had your progressives, your conservatives, and maybe a dash of liberal centrists for good measure. This was the predictable rhythm of European politics.
The Insurrectionist Parties: A New Breed of Political Player
But now, the game has changed. Populist, often far-right, parties are crashing the party, disrupting the established order and leaving the traditional players scrambling to adapt. These new "insurrectionist" forces, as I'll call them, don't play by the old rules. They defy easy categorization and are rewriting the political playbook.
Similarities with developments in the United States
In a recent New York Times article, political analyst Nate Cohn points out how Donald Trump’s emergence has marked a major shift in American politics, upsetting a long established cleavage between pro-worker, pro-medicare Democrats and pro-business, anti-government intervention Republicans.
Old political map:
The Democrats represented the working class, social change and the causes of liberal activists
Republicans were for small-government, fiscal conservatism, the religious right and were foreign policy hawks
There was basic bipartisan agreement on the principles of international trade, an assertive foreign policy, immigration
The new map:
Trump-era Republicans champion the working class, are anti-elites, want to protect American jobs and criticise traditional U.S. foreign policy
Democrats and a few remaining old-generation Republicans defend the establishment and the old foreign policy consensus
There are hardly any areas of consensus between the two sides
This shift has seen the two major parties seemingly switch positions on key issues like the working class, foreign policy, and the role of elites. The resulting realignment has seen traditional party lines blur, with a new educational divide replacing the old class divide. While the long-term impact of this shift remains uncertain, it reflects a broader trend across Western democracies, where conservative populism challenges the established political order and the center-left struggles to maintain its connection with the working class.
Germany: A Case Study in Disruption
Germany offers a compelling example of a similar transformation happening in Europe. During the Cold War, the political landscape was relatively stable, dominated by three major players - The Social Democrats (SPD) on the left, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) on the centre-right, and the smaller Liberal Democrats (FDP) as centrist kingmakers, forming government coalitions with whichever of the other two parties got more votes at an election.
Then came the 1990s, and the tectonic plates began to shift. The Green Party gained prominence, followed by the rise of Die Linke, a hard-left party with roots in the former East German Communist Party. More recently, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged, and the newly formed Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) occupies a strange, ideology-defying pro-working class, anti-immigrant position on the political spectrum.
This influx of new players has shattered the old two-party dynamic. Germany has witnessed "grand coalitions" where the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats, historical rivals, have joined forces to counter the combined threat of these fringe groups. The defining cleavage is no longer between left and right, but between the mainstream establishment and the subversive, rule-breaking insurrectionists - a situation that is eerily similar to the new US political map described above.
Beyond Germany: A Continental Shift?
While Germany provides a particularly striking example, this phenomenon isn't isolated. The trend towards a new political divide between established and insurrectionist parties is quite visible in France, where in elections earlier this year all mainstream parties presented themselves as one bloc against the National Rally party of Marine Le Pen. And in Poland, a coalition of most opposition parties defeated the nationalist / populist PiS party, while in Turkey where Erdogan’s AKP almost lost its majority against a common front of opposition parties. In all these cases, the traditional parties have all forged a pact to leave out the new “indecent” populist parties.
Harking Back to a Recent Past? Italy's Experience as a Precedent
But is this trend truly as novel as it seems? A glance at Italy's political history suggests that we might have seen something similar to before. In the 1960s and 1970s, Italy – a country often at the forefront of new political trends – found itself grappling with a similar dynamic. The Italian Communist Party (PCI), despite garnering over 30% of the vote at its peak, was effectively ostracized by all other parties. The Cold War's influence loomed large, and the PCI, regardless of its electoral strength, was deemed beyond the pale, unable to participate in any government coalition. Even as the situation gradually began to change in the 1980s, the Communists never managed to govern Italy before their dissolution in the early 1990s. Italy's past, therefore, provides an interesting, if imperfect, parallel to the current situation, demonstrating that the exclusion of powerful political forces, deemed too radical or subversive, is not entirely without precedent.
An Uncertain Future and the Impact of Russian Aggression
This new era of European politics is marked by many uncertainties. Will the traditional parties adapt and reclaim their dominance? Will the insurrectionist forces continue to gain ground, reshaping the political landscape permanently?
And how will the war in Ukraine and the renewed Russian threat affect this process? After all, the Italian boycott of the PCI during the Cold War stemmed largely from fears that the Soviet Union might gain an ally in the West. Will the renewed Russian threat trigger similar long-term dynamics?
The rise of these new political actors is forcing a fundamental rethink of the very definition of left and right in Europe. The old model is crumbling, and what will replace it remains to be seen.
One possible path might be similar to what happened in Italy at the end of the cold war - the PCI turned itself into a “respectable” mainstream centre-left party, while other traditional parties were replaced by new formations, making the old anti-PCI prejudice obsolete. Political realignments are already under way in other European countries - in France the once-dominant Socialists have lost so many votes that they are currently operating as part of a broader coalition of the left, while the former Gaullist (formerly the main conservative party) is struggling to remain united as its leadership is split between pursuing a shift to the right, or instead joining forces with more moderate centrist parties.
These new political dynamics are already having an impact on Europe’s policies, both domestic and international. In the European Parliament, insurrectionist parties have been making slow but steady gains in the last two electoral cycles, and while they are still unable to influence policy making, their questioning of some key policies, especially on immigration and climate change, are likely to affect the attitudes of European leaders in the next legislature. In foreign policy, Europe is constantly struggling to maintain its current joint stance against Russia.
Here too, a comparison with the Cold War years might be interesting. Then, Europe was divided between a Western half, aligned with the US and united in NATO, and a Communist Eastern Europe, part of the Warsaw Pact, the Communist equivalent of NATO. Very few countries escaped such a dichotomy, the main one being Yugoslavia. Today, most East European countries have joined NATO, leaving Russia isolated. But despite this new situation, some countries, including Hungary and Serbia, have adopted much more pro-Russian policies, while in many others, insurrectionist parties refuse to express support for Ukraine, or go as far as expressing sympathy for Vladimir Putin, whom they see as an example of the strong leader their country deserves.
Beyond Europe
Of course, insurrectionist parties are not a trend only in Europe. We already discussed the US case, where the MAGA movement is a prime example of an insurrectionist party successfully gaining a position of influence. Elsewhere, in a recent Foreign Policy article, Larry Diamond lists over 25 world countries where nationalist, populist and/or authoritarian parties have in recent years caused a democratic backsliding, ending the democratising trend the world had experienced until 2006.
Conclusion
The growth of populist parties across Europe and the decline of the traditional left-right political divide signifies a significant shift in the political landscape. As the established political order grapples with these new dynamics, the future remains uncertain. The rise of populism and the fracturing of traditional party lines raise questions about the stability and direction of European politics. The influence of external factors, such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the resurgence of Russia, further complicates the situation.
The evolving political landscape in Europe necessitates a re-evaluation of traditional political ideologies and strategies. While the outcome of this transformation is yet to be determined, it is clear that the era of predictable left-right politics is giving way to a new, more complex and volatile reality.
Santa Monica, 28 December 2024
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