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The Challenges of Deterrence in Different Regimes

Part two of a series of articles on deterrence and geopolitical power games This article looks at the question whether deterrence operates the same way in democratic regimes, authoritarian regimes structured around institutional setting, or regimes subject to one-man rule, such as Putin's Russia. Deterrence theory traditionally assumes that states will act rationally to avoid costs, especially when those costs threaten the state's survival or the regime's stability. However, the type of regime significantly influences how deterrence is perceived and how it must be applied. The Risk Profile of Different Regimes In democratic regimes, decision-making tends to be more collective, with various checks and balances that moderate the actions of the state. Leaders in democracies are accountable to their electorate, the media, and other institutional forces, which generally leads to more cautious and calculated decision-making. Deterrence in democratic contexts tends to be more pred

The Russian-Ukraine Conflict as a Failure of Deterrence

  Abstract : This article analyses the potential factors contributing to the start of the Ukraine conflict, by applying the teachings of eminent international affairs scholar John Mearsheimer. It argues that Europe and America failed to send adequate deterrence signals, which played a crucial role in the escalation. While Mearsheimer's analysis that the West helped trigger the conflict is largely correct, it is not for the reasons he has provided. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been analysed through various lenses, with deterrence theory offering a particularly insightful perspective. John Mearsheimer, a prominent scholar in international relations, has extensively explored the concept of deterrence, emphasising the critical importance of sending clear signals to potential aggressors. The essence of deterrence, according to Mearsheimer, lies in demonstrating sufficient military capability and resolve to convince a rival that any act of aggression would be too c

How times change - The Left’s change of attitude towards NATO

  The Year was 1983 The town was Sigonella, Sicily, Italy. Protests erupted against the deployment of cruise missiles in NATO bases across Europe. I vividly remember the demonstrations, even participating in some. The prevailing sentiment was a fear of being dragged into a conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union. A Different Worldview The United States represented capitalism, while the Soviet Union embodied communism. For many Europeans, the choice between these systems wasn't clear-cut. Germany passed legislation effectively banning the Communist Party. In Italy, a strong anticommunist elite took various legal and less-than-legal steps to prevent the Communist Party ever entering government. Other European countries experienced similar trends. As a result, for millions of Europe, NATO was thus seen as an instrument of oppression, of stifling democratic processes. In this climate, a significant portion of Europe's left-wing held a favorable or neutral view of th

2024 Preview: Elections, War, and Technology

  The new year beckons, and with it, the yearly urge by international policy analysts to identify what could be the defining events of 2024. This year promises to be rich in major events, both for Europe and the world. Here are some key themes to watch: 1. Election year: There will be elections in key countries, including India, Taiwan, Russia, the EU (not a country, but the European Parliament still represents 450 million people) and the United States. Of these, the US Presidential elections in November will be the most closely watched, given that Donald Trump is once again a front runner and is promising revenge if elected. 2. The Rise of the Right in Europe: Europe will face its own internal struggles in the form of the European Parliament elections. The recent rise of right-wing and extremist parties poses a serious threat to the current consensus in Brussels, should they gain a sizable parliamentary representation. This could lead to a shift in EU policies and governance, with im

Gaza Caught in the Crossfire: Why Current Ceasefire Demands Miss the Mark

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has rightly sparked global concern and emotional pleas for a ceasefire. The images of suffering Palestinian civilians are harrowing. However, calls for Israel to unilaterally lay down arms while ignoring Hamas's role in the crisis risk neglecting a crucial aspect of the conflict: the asymmetrical nature of the threats faced by both sides. On October 7th, Israel faced an unprecedented onslaught. Hamas, operating from a sophisticated network of tunnels beneath Gaza, killed, tortured and kidnapped over a thousand Israeli civilians and unleashed a barrage of rockets targeting civilian populations throughout Israel. This intricate underground system serves as both a weapons cache and a military base, establishing Hamas as an armed force operating from the heart of a densely populated city. It is hard to demand that Israel should allow an army to place its barracks under a populated city, from which it can repeat such attacks.  Demand

What is a Nation?

In the United States, over the past few years, events such as the death of George Floyd at the hands of a police officer and movements such as Black Lives Matter have been putting into question how committed the United States of America is to treating its black citizens fairly. One major point of criticism is the “systemic racism” that permeates public life in the country, putting black people at a disadvantage in the job market, education, academia and politics. On the other hand, many of the most ardent supporters of former president Donald Trump display confederate flags, suggesting nostalgic memories of the pre-civil war period. In Russia, president Vladimir Putin is accusing Ukraine of being a stooge of Western powers bent on destroying Russian society and threatening the nation’s very existence. He seems to claim that Ukraine is a part of Russian national identity which the west is trying to take away.  In Europe, during the 2010s a series of anti-EU movements emerged in various

An Energy Response to Climate Change and Putin

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The quest for the energy system of the future -  clean, cheap, reliable