Politics in Europe: Is the Traditional Left-Right Divide Crumbling? For decades, European politics has been defined by a familiar tug-of-war: the left versus the right. Socialist and progressive parties squared off against conservative and centrist forces, with the occasional liberal party (in the European sense) spicing things up. This comfortable dichotomy, a bedrock of the political landscape, is now facing an unprecedented challenge: the rise of insurrectionist, populist parties that are shaking the foundations of European democracy. The Old Model: A Tale of Two Sides (and Some Variations) Think back to the classic political battles across the continent. In many European nations, a dominant socialist or progressive party would typically face off against a major conservative party. Sometimes, this played out with multiple left-leaning parties against a constellation of centrist and conservative forces, but the basic framework remained. You had your progressives, your conservatives, ...
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What Happened in the 2024 U.S. Election: Some Lessons
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The 2024 U.S. election delivered a decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party, giving them control over the presidency, Congress, and the Senate. In retrospect, the reasons for this outcome seem clear. While the Democratic Party may feel dismayed, these results offer valuable lessons for future campaigns. Below, I explore the three major factors which I see as contributing to the Democrats' defeat and the Republicans’ success, and attempt to derive some lessons from the election results. 1. The Economy: A Disconnect Between Data and Perception Economic performance is often the cornerstone of electoral success, and in 2024, the perception of the U.S. economy overshadowed actual metrics. While economic indicators pointed to a thriving economy, public sentiment told a different story. As pointed out by Tim Hartford in the Financial Times (paywall), while headline data might suggest optimism, the positive results might not always be reflected in the daily lives of work...
The Challenges of Deterrence in Different Regimes
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Part two of a series of articles on deterrence and geopolitical power games This article looks at the question whether deterrence operates the same way in democratic regimes, authoritarian regimes structured around institutional setting, or regimes subject to one-man rule, such as Putin's Russia. Deterrence theory traditionally assumes that states will act rationally to avoid costs, especially when those costs threaten the state's survival or the regime's stability. However, the type of regime significantly influences how deterrence is perceived and how it must be applied. The Risk Profile of Different Regimes In democratic regimes, decision-making tends to be more collective, with various checks and balances that moderate the actions of the state. Leaders in democracies are accountable to their electorate, the media, and other institutional forces, which generally leads to more cautious and calculated decision-making. Deterrence in democratic contexts tends to be more pred...
The Russian-Ukraine Conflict as a Failure of Deterrence
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Abstract : This article analyses the potential factors contributing to the start of the Ukraine conflict, by applying the teachings of eminent international affairs scholar John Mearsheimer. It argues that Europe and America failed to send adequate deterrence signals, which played a crucial role in the escalation. While Mearsheimer's analysis that the West helped trigger the conflict is largely correct, it is not for the reasons he has provided. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been analysed through various lenses, with deterrence theory offering a particularly insightful perspective. John Mearsheimer, a prominent scholar in international relations, has extensively explored the concept of deterrence, emphasising the critical importance of sending clear signals to potential aggressors. The essence of deterrence, according to Mearsheimer, lies in demonstrating sufficient military capability and resolve to convince a rival that any act of aggression would be too c...
How times change - The Left’s change of attitude towards NATO
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The Year was 1983 The town was Sigonella, Sicily, Italy. Protests erupted against the deployment of cruise missiles in NATO bases across Europe. I vividly remember the demonstrations, even participating in some. The prevailing sentiment was a fear of being dragged into a conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union. A Different Worldview The United States represented capitalism, while the Soviet Union embodied communism. For many Europeans, the choice between these systems wasn't clear-cut. Germany passed legislation effectively banning the Communist Party. In Italy, a strong anticommunist elite took various legal and less-than-legal steps to prevent the Communist Party ever entering government. Other European countries experienced similar trends. As a result, for millions of Europe, NATO was thus seen as an instrument of oppression, of stifling democratic processes. In this climate, a significant portion of Europe's left-wing held a favorable or neutral view of th...
2024 Preview: Elections, War, and Technology
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The new year beckons, and with it, the yearly urge by international policy analysts to identify what could be the defining events of 2024. This year promises to be rich in major events, both for Europe and the world. Here are some key themes to watch: 1. Election year: There will be elections in key countries, including India, Taiwan, Russia, the EU (not a country, but the European Parliament still represents 450 million people) and the United States. Of these, the US Presidential elections in November will be the most closely watched, given that Donald Trump is once again a front runner and is promising revenge if elected. 2. The Rise of the Right in Europe: Europe will face its own internal struggles in the form of the European Parliament elections. The recent rise of right-wing and extremist parties poses a serious threat to the current consensus in Brussels, should they gain a sizable parliamentary representation. This could lead to a shift in EU policies and governance, wit...