What Happened in the 2024 U.S. Election: Some Lessons
The 2024 U.S. election delivered a decisive victory for Donald Trump and the Republican Party, giving them control over the presidency, Congress, and the Senate. In retrospect, the reasons for this outcome seem clear. While the Democratic Party may feel dismayed, these results offer valuable lessons for future campaigns. Below, I explore the three major factors which I see as contributing to the Democrats' defeat and the Republicans’ success, and attempt to derive some lessons from the election results. 1. The Economy: A Disconnect Between Data and Perception Economic performance is often the cornerstone of electoral success, and in 2024, the perception of the U.S. economy overshadowed actual metrics. While economic indicators pointed to a thriving economy, public sentiment told a different story. As pointed out by Tim Hartford in the Financial Times (paywall), while headline data might suggest optimism, the positive results might not always be reflected in the daily lives of work...